Abstract:
The Syncerus caffer (African buffalo), a keystone herbivore in the East African rangelands, is not only ecologically indispensable but also an essential cultural and economic resource. However, the species faces potential habitat shifts due to varying climate dynamics in tandem with stochastic ecological makeup and deleterious human-induced changes. This study models and quantifies the distribution of suitable habitats for Syncerus caffer in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem under current and two future climate scenarios for 2041–2060 (2050) and 2061–2080 (2070) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). The habitat suitability modelling used 166 georeferenced Syncerus caffer presence records and fifteen predictor variables. The most influential variables were annual precipitation (bio_12), isothermality (bio_3), temperature annual range (bio_7), and precipitation of driest month (bio_14). By 2050, the predicted highly suitable areas would decrease by 6.4% (232.34 km2) under SSP245 and by 9.9% (356.20 km2) under SSP585. Additionally, by 2070, the predicted highly suitable areas would decrease by 16.6% (512.62 km2) under SSP245 and by 22.4% (657.37 km2) under SSP585. These declines are associated with increasing temperatures, precipitation variations and habitat fragmentation, with severe effects in 2070 under SSP585. To mitigate this predicted decline, we recommend focused landscape restorations in the highly and moderately suitable areas, such as planting native grasses and preservation of riparian buffers through community-based projects that align with local land-use needs.
