Climate change vulnerability assessment using a GIS modelling approach in ASAL ecosystem: a case study of Upper Ewaso Nyiro basin, Kenya

Abstract

Investments in climate change adaptation for communities and water resources are increasingly benefiting from vulnerability mapping. Such mapping can reveal hotspot areas from climate-related threats and can provide useful information needed for adaptation and resilience building efforts. The arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya are volatile to climate change and pastoralists in this region are highly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources to sustain their livelihoods, hence any change in climate affects them negatively. This study sought to assess climate vulnerability in upper Ewaso Nyiro basin area using the IPCC approach which defines vulnerability in three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Twelve indicators were selected based on its proximity to the component being measured and normalization of the indicators was done to ensure consistency of scale ranging from 0 to 100, illustrating a linear relationship to vulnerability 100 being most vulnerable. The study relied on averaging approach of indicators to derive component and vulnerability scores through the process of spatial integration. Results observed high vulnerability in areas exhibiting similar trend in high exposure and lack of adaptive capacity as well as high sensitivity. The highest vulnerability was observed in Korr/Ngurunit ward in Marsabit County where approximately 45.45% of the population was noted to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, while 54.55% of the population was noted to be moderately vulnerable. This study recommends county government and national government to build targeted resilience efforts within the highly vulnerable communities since this would improve community livelihoods.