Characterization of wheat production using earth-based observations: a case study of Meru County, Kenya

Abstract

This research demonstrates the use of Earth-based observations to evaluate factors affecting wheat production. In Kenya, there has been an over-reliance on maize production and this cannot feed the increasing population hence a need to shift to wheat to enhance food security. Wheat farming is faced with the problem of climate change, drought, fertilizer application, pests and diseases, and low prices. The objective of this research is achieved through the characterization of climatic patterns, correlating the effect of change of Land use and wheat growth seasons on wheat production. The analyses carried out are drought, change in Land use Land Cover and wheat growing seasons. Extreme cases of meteorological drought using SPEI-1, occurred in 2001 October, November (− 2.175, − 2.08309) and 2016 July (− 2.2148) Whereas SPEI-3 were in 1997 February (− 2.149), 2001 November and December (− 2.1423, − 2.346), 2002 January and February (− 2.347, − 2.1380) SPEI values respectively. Extreme cases of Agricultural drought months are 1986 September (− 127.986), 1989 November (− 132.258), 1996 September and October (− 130.372, − 145.085) and 2013 February (− 120.184) NDVI Anomaly values. SPEI 1 and 3 were considered best in drought analysis because wheat is rainfed, takes a minimum duration of 3 months to grow hence the intensity of drought easily understood. A strong correlation is in the change of Forestland (R = 0.75) and Bare land (R = 0.66), moderate correlation in Wheat plantations (R = 0.42), a weak correlation in vegetation (R = 0.32) and a very weak correlation between length of seasons (R = 0.16) to wheat production. The year 2000, 2008 and 2009 had low whereas 2017 and 2018 had high wheat production (7600, 5200, 4975, 46,450 and 27,800 tonnes respectively). The future analysis should focus on prediction analysis of both drought, Land use Land Cover Changes and wheat growing seasons.