Abstract:
Wind turbines are designed to function within a
certain range of wind speed to optimise production cost and
minimise damage limited by technical barriers and usually
shut down when wind speed crosses these limits. We present
an empirical analysis of extreme events of wind speed outside
the functional range of wind turbine and compute the return
period of such events using a direct empirical approach. We also
demonstrate an extrapolation technique to accurately estimate
the return period for time series of short duration. Analysis of
wind speed data from various locations reveals that the duration
of both upper and lower exceedances can be modelled empirically
by the exponential family of distributions very closely. The ideas
developed would be useful to wind farm managers for making
anticipatory calculations based on past data regarding frequency
and durations of wind turbine shut-down due to extreme wind
speeds.
