Abstract:
The objective of this study was to assess between actual and
modelled burned area accuracy, differences in fire spread
and behaviour through the simulation of recent forest fires
that affected the Mt Kenya Forest Reserve. The research
analyzed differences between the actual and modelled
fire predictions for two separate fires that occurred within
the Mt Kenya Forest Reserve in March, 2015 at Irangi
and March, 2012 at Chogoria forest stations. FlamMap
minimum travel time (MTT) fire modelling software
was used to compare spatial characteristics (fireline
intensity and spread rate) of fires between the actual and
the modelled fires. Comparative analysis between the
actual and simulated fire area showed a relatively good
agreement. The fire model provided a better understanding
of the differences in fire growth and behaviour predictions
over heterogeneous fuel landscapes, complex topography
and changing weather conditions.
