Abstract:
Wind speed forecasting has received a lot of attention in the recent past from researchers due
to its enormous benefits in the generation of wind power and distribution. The biggest challenge still
remains to be accurate prediction of wind speeds for efficient operation of a wind farm. Wind speed
forecasts can be greatly improved by understanding its underlying dynamics. In this paper, we propose a
method of time series partitioning where the original 10 minutes wind speed data is converted into a twodimensional
array of order (N x 144) where N denotes the number of days with 144 the daily 10-min
observations. Upon successful time series partitioning, a point forecast is computed for each of the 144
datasets extracted from the 10 minutes wind speed observations using an Auto-Regressive (AR) process
which is then combined together to give the (N+1)st day forecast. The results of the computations show
significant improvement in the prediction accuracy when AR model is coupled with time series
partitioning.
