Impacts of Spatial Extend and Site Location on Calibration of Urban Growth Models

Abstract

During the last decades, cities in sub-saharan Africa have undergone rapid urban growth due to increased population growth and high economic activities. This research explores the impacts of varying modelling settings including spatial extend and its location for the city of Nairobi using a cellular automata (CA) urban growth model (UGM). Our UGM used multi-temporal satellite-based data for classification of urban land-use of 1986, 2000 and 2010, road data, slope data and exclusion layer. Monte-Carlo technique was used for model calibration and Multi Resolution Validation (MRV) technique for validation. Simulation of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three Spatial grid sizes varying in extent and location were applied in the UGM Calibration and validation. Thus, this research explored the impacts of varying spatial extent (grid) and location on urban growth modelling and hence can contribute to an improved sustainable planning and development. This Is useful for future planning as the Nairobi grows and expands into the peri-urban areas.