Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-Ecological Zones- a Case Study of Taita Hills, Kenya

Abstract

Climate variations all over the world have huge potential impacts to the environment at large. Human and economic activities are not left behind when climate change issues are concerned. Agriculture, being the core human and one ofthe basic economic activities is severely hampered by climate variations. In Africa, and specifically in Kenya, there has been rampant change in the growing patterns of some crops. Fanners lack knowledge that ascertains the reason behind the low income from their farm produce. The main research objective in this study is to determine the variation of agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of Taita hills in Kenya based on climate changes. Specific objectives are: Mapping historical climate data (1960-2010) and comparing with future climate datasets of 2050, matching the layers in a grid cell (Agro-ecological cell) using Geographical Information System (GIS) and delineating the AEZ based on selected parameters. This paper shows the development of AEZ for Taita hills in Kenya from a GIS point of view and develops a model of its variation given that climate is varying over a period of time. It gives a prediction for the variation of the zones based on climate change in the year 2050. A comparison of the historical and future AEZ is shown and is used to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural land. Finally it addresses the sensitive question of economical value to the fanners given that there will be a change and gives some remarks on possible farming practices that the fanners can adopt.