Abstract:
The Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an
integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous
economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this
paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate
change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes
of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future
evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy
share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy bal-10
ance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate
change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment
models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider
abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy
and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that15
these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower
temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.
