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Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. This project was carried out in order to resonate the land use land cover trends of Nairobi as a city in order to understand the history of growth and development of the city and its stimulating factors. Understanding the past is important but so is the anticipation of the future. The world is currently in a dynamic era in which spatial-temporal analysis of land use land cover trends hold a great importance in shaping the future. The prediction of land use land cover conditions of Nairobi is key in carrying out planning not just for the current generations but for the generations to come as well.
Nairobi has had challenges in the past on issues to do with planning and management of its land resources. Insufficient housing facilities and expansion of roads being the major challenges. In the face of major climate changes and global warming, management of the resource that is land is the key to a greener and more sustainable future not just for the city, but to its environs which is the Nairobi metropolitan area.
The major objective of this study was to simulate the land use land cover spatial dynamics of Nairobi city for 2030 based on the underlying parametric variables. The variables focused on included the demography, the topography (by use of a digital elevation model) and a prediction model constraint.
Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. This project was carried out in order to resonate the land use land cover trends of Nairobi as a city in order to understand the history of growth and development of the city and its stimulating factors. Understanding the past is important but so is the anticipation of the future. The world is currently in a dynamic era in which spatial-temporal analysis of land use land cover trends hold a great importance in shaping the future. The prediction of land use land cover conditions of Nairobi is key in carrying out planning not just for the current generations but for the generations to come as well.
Nairobi has had challenges in the past on issues to do with planning and management of its land resources. Insufficient housing facilities and expansion of roads being the major challenges. In the face of major climate changes and global warming, management of the resource that is land is the key to a greener and more sustainable future not just for the city, but to its environs which is the Nairobi metropolitan area.
The major objective of this study was to simulate the land use land cover spatial dynamics of Nairobi city for 2030 based on the underlying parametric variables. The variables focused on included the demography, the topography (by use of a digital elevation model) and a prediction model constraint.
With the use of Landsat satellite imagery and integration with demographic social data together with the topographic data (DEM), the expected future conditions of land use land cover were simulated using the two stage markov prediction model. Data cleaning had to be done in order to harmonize the projection systems and make them usable in the markov model.
The land use land cover trends from the analysis depict a predominant increase in the built-up coverage. The multitemporal analysis shows a rapid urbanization of Nairobi with nearly 50% of the land use being dominated by built-up. Vegetation fluctuates due parameters such as climate change and seasonal variations of the weather but reduces due to more development. Nairobi’s population is expected to increase by 3.94% in the year 2030 emphasizing on the need for planning. |
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